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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Hameenlinna — IFK Helsinki

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Model prediction for 24 October

Hameenlinna39%
Draw in regulation23%
IFK Helsinki37%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Hameenlinna 51%, IFK Helsinki 49% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 35%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.3 and 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Hameenlinna — IFK Helsinki2.3–2.3
Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
IFK Helsinki to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)35%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)65%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Hameenlinna
  • Hameenlinna goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Hameenlinna

  • 10.10KooKoo5:3
  • 09.10away · Assat3:2 SO
  • 03.10Karpat2:1 OT
  • 02.10JYP2:1
  • 29.09away · Jokerit0:3

IFK Helsinki

  • 10.10KalPa6:1
  • 08.10away · Jokerit2:3 OT
  • 03.10away · Vaasan Sport3:2 OT
  • 26.09away · Pelicans1:2
  • 25.09JYP3:4

Head to head

  • 04.09.2026IFK Helsinki — Hameenlinna5:3
  • 24.01.2026Hameenlinna — IFK Helsinki0:4
  • 17.12.2025IFK Helsinki — Hameenlinna4:3
  • 21.11.2025Hameenlinna — IFK Helsinki4:0
  • 22.10.2025IFK Helsinki — Hameenlinna2:6

Full record: 15 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416
13, Relegation play-offKalPa11401627–29-213
14, Relegation play-offIFK Helsinki11312531–34-313
15, Relegation play-offVaasan Sport11312520–31-1113

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • IlvesJukuritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • JYPAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.3
  • KarpatKalPapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.4
  • KooKooJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.4
  • PelicansTapparapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • TPS TurkuLukkopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:34.8
  • Vaasan SportSaiPapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →