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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

JYP — Assat

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Model prediction for 24 October

JYP47%
Draw in regulation21%
Assat32%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

JYP are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 48%.

Why

  • JYP are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: JYP — Assat2.9–2.4
JYP to win (incl. OT and shootout)58%
Assat to win (incl. OT and shootout)42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)48%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)52%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap JYP
  • JYP goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

JYP

  • 09.10away · Kiekko-Espoo1:6
  • 08.10away · SaiPa2:1
  • 03.10away · TPS Turku1:4
  • 02.10away · Hameenlinna1:2
  • 25.09away · IFK Helsinki4:3

Assat

  • 09.10Hameenlinna2:3 SO
  • 07.10away · Jukurit1:0
  • 03.10away · Lukko5:2
  • 02.10Lukko0:3
  • 26.09away · Hameenlinna4:5 OT

Head to head

  • 17.03.2026JYP — Assat5:4
  • 27.09.2025Assat — JYP2:3
  • 22.01.2025JYP — Assat5:2
  • 05.12.2024Assat — JYP3:1
  • 09.03.2024Assat — JYP4:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit14630536–29+724
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAssat12612330–27+322
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarpat13523335–34+122
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsJYP10700330–25+521
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo13513442–32+1020

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • HameenlinnaIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.5
  • IlvesJukuritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • KarpatKalPapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.4
  • KooKooJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.4
  • PelicansTapparapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • TPS TurkuLukkopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:34.8
  • Vaasan SportSaiPapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →