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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Tuesday, 27 October, MSK

Karlovy Vary — Mlada Boleslav

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Model prediction for 27 October

Karlovy Vary53%
Draw in regulation22%
Mlada Boleslav24%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Karlovy Vary are clear favourites: 67% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 30%.

Why

  • Karlovy Vary are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 1.8.

Facts

  • League table: Karlovy Vary — No. 3, 18 pts; Mlada Boleslav — No. 12, 9 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Karlovy Vary 4 wins, Mlada Boleslav 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Karlovy Vary — Mlada Boleslav2.5–1.8
Karlovy Vary to win (incl. OT and shootout)67%
Mlada Boleslav to win (incl. OT and shootout)33%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)30%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)70%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Karlovy Vary
  • Karlovy Vary goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Karlovy Vary

  • 11.10Kladno3:1
  • 09.10away · Liberec0:5
  • 04.10Plzen4:1
  • 02.10away · Vitkovice3:0
  • 28.09away · Sparta Prague1:0

Mlada Boleslav

  • 11.10Litvinov2:1
  • 09.10away · Kladno3:4
  • 04.10Liberec3:5
  • 02.10away · Kometa Brno2:3 SO
  • 29.09Plzen1:4

Head to head

  • 18.09.2026Mlada Boleslav — Karlovy Vary1:4
  • 25.01.2026Karlovy Vary — Mlada Boleslav4:0
  • 21.12.2025Mlada Boleslav — Karlovy Vary0:3
  • 28.10.2025Karlovy Vary — Mlada Boleslav4:5 OT
  • 21.09.2025Mlada Boleslav — Karlovy Vary2:3

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPardubice11810247–31+1626
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarlovy Vary9600322–16+618
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPlzen10331325–22+316
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKometa Brno9221425–28-311
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMlada Boleslav10211623–36-139
13Vitkovice9201621–32-117

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • Ceske BudejoviceMountfield HKpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
  • PlzenOlomoucpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.4
  • KladnoSparta Praguepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
  • PardubiceLitvinovpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →