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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Sunday, 18 October, MSK

Khimik — Ryazan

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Model prediction for 18 October

Khimik56%
Draw in regulation22%
Ryazan23%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Khimik are clear favourites: 69% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 33%.

Why

  • Khimik are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 1.8.

Facts

  • League table: Khimik — No. 9, 18 pts; Ryazan — No. 13, 16 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
  • Ryazan: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Khimik 4 wins, Ryazan 1.
  • Days of rest before the match: Khimik 8, Ryazan 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Khimik — Ryazan2.7–1.8
Khimik to win (incl. OT and shootout)69%
Ryazan to win (incl. OT and shootout)31%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)33%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)67%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Khimik
  • Khimik goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Khimik

  • 10.10away · Bars1:2
  • 08.10away · Almetyevsk2:3
  • 06.10away · CSK VVS8:2
  • 02.10SKA-VMF St. Petersburg1:0
  • 30.09Dinamo St. Petersburg4:3 OT

Ryazan

  • 14.10Gornyak5:3
  • 12.10Chelmet Chelyabinsk8:0
  • 10.10Magnitka Magnitogorsk4:3 SO
  • 08.10Orsk2:3 OT
  • 03.10away · Perm0:1

Head to head

  • 12.03.2026Ryazan — Khimik0:2
  • 07.09.2025Khimik — Ryazan5:2
  • 22.02.2025Khimik — Ryazan5:2
  • 29.09.2024Ryazan — Khimik2:1 OT
  • 29.01.2024Ryazan — Khimik1:4

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, PlayoffsMetallurg Novokuznetsk1483327–16+1119
9, PlayoffsKhimik1482446–28+1818
10, PlayoffsSKA-VMF St. Petersburg1381433–23+1017
12, PlayoffsPerm1280430–23+716
13, PlayoffsRyazan1664635–35016
14, PlayoffsTambov1372434–34016

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • KalugaGornyak
    1The model's most likely outcome: 125%Model's score: 2:13.9
  • OlympiaOmskie Krylia
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →