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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Alexander Vinokourov Sports Palace

Kulager — Karaganda

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Model prediction and result

1:3Came true
Kulager29%
Draw in regulation21%
Karaganda50%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Karaganda to win (62% incl. overtime), came true.

Karaganda are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.

Why

  • Karaganda are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kulager — Karaganda2.5–3.1
Kulager to win (incl. OT and shootout)38%
Karaganda to win (incl. OT and shootout)62%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)54%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kulager
  • Kulager goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Kulager

  • 07.10Kokshetau3:4
  • 06.10Kokshetau3:4
  • 02.10away · Nomad Astana4:5 SO
  • 01.10away · Nomad Astana1:4
  • 28.09away · Almaty2:1

Karaganda

  • 07.10away · Gornyak Rudny4:1
  • 06.10away · Gornyak Rudny3:5
  • 02.10Pavlodar9:0
  • 01.10Pavlodar8:0
  • 28.09away · Nomad Astana1:4

Head to head

  • 11.02.2026Kulager — Karaganda4:1
  • 10.02.2026Kulager — Karaganda4:3
  • 15.10.2025Kulager — Karaganda3:2 SO
  • 14.10.2025Kulager — Karaganda5:4 OT
  • 06.10.2025Karaganda — Kulager5:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
4, PlayoffsGornyak Rudny18121571–44+2725
5, PlayoffsKaraganda18112573–44+2924
6, PlayoffsKulager1894564–52+1222
7, PlayoffsAlmaty1890949–57-818

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next match

  • KulagerKaraganda11 October · Kazakhstan Championship
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 2:1 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:4.5.6

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

  • KokshetauNomad Astana
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 3:2 in overtime. Model's score: 2:3.5.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →