Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Alexander Vinokourov Sports Palace
Kulager — Karaganda
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In short
Final score 2:1 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Karaganda to win (63% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 63% fails in about 37 matches out of 100 on average.
Karaganda are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 53%.
Why
- Karaganda are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.4.
- Kulager: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kulager — Karaganda | 2.4–3.1 | |
| Kulager to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 37% | |
| Karaganda to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 63% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 53% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 47% |
111 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Kulager
- Kulager goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10Karaganda1:3
- 07.10Kokshetau3:4
- 06.10Kokshetau3:4
- 02.10away · Nomad Astana4:5 SO
- 01.10away · Nomad Astana1:4
- 10.10away · Kulager3:1
- 07.10away · Gornyak Rudny4:1
- 06.10away · Gornyak Rudny3:5
- 02.10Pavlodar9:0
- 01.10Pavlodar8:0
Head to head
- 10.10.2026Kulager — Karaganda1:3
- 11.02.2026Kulager — Karaganda4:1
- 10.02.2026Kulager — Karaganda4:3
- 15.10.2025Kulager — Karaganda3:2 SO
- 14.10.2025Kulager — Karaganda5:4 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Playoffs | Gornyak Rudny | 18 | 12 | +27 | 25 |
| 5, Playoffs | Karaganda | 18 | 11 | +29 | 24 |
| 6, Playoffs | Kulager | 18 | 9 | +12 | 22 |
| 7, Playoffs | Almaty | 18 | 9 | -8 | 18 |
Next matches
- KokshetauKaraganda14 October · Kazakhstan Championship47532The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.2
- Beibarys AtyrauKulager16 October · Kazakhstan Championship38622The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.1
Kazakhstan Championship on the same day
- 35652The most likely outcome came true: 220%0:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.7
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 222%2:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
- 10001The most likely outcome came true: 10%13:0Final score 13:0. Model's score: 12:1.10.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →