KHL · Monday, 5 October, MSK · Lada Arena
Lada — Shanghai
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0:5Came true
In short
Final score 0:5: the model's most likely outcome, Shanghai to win (54% incl. overtime), came true.
Shanghai are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lada — Shanghai | 2.5–2.6 | |
| Lada to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 46% | |
| Shanghai to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 54% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 44% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 56% |
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- Totals incl. OT
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- Lada goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 02.10away · Avangard Omsk1:4
- 30.09away · Yekaterinburg1:3
- 28.09away · Dinamo Minsk4:5
- 25.09CSKA Moscow0:5
- 23.09away · Niznekamsk3:7
- 03.10away · Cherepovets1:2 OT
- 30.09Magnitogorsk4:1
- 28.09Sochi4:1
- 26.09Dinamo Minsk2:1
- 22.09Yekaterinburg3:2
Head to head
- 01.03.2026Lada — Shanghai1:2
- 05.01.2026Shanghai — Lada3:2
- 19.12.2025Shanghai — Lada2:4
- 26.09.2025Lada — Shanghai1:4
- 12.01.2025Lada — Shanghai2:3 SO
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Niznekamsk | 15 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Shanghai | 12 | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | SKA St. Petersburg | 14 | 8 | +3 | 17 |
| 21 | Sochi | 14 | 3 | -30 | 6 |
| 22 | Lada | 15 | 1 | -35 | 6 |
Next matches
- Dynamo MoscowShanghai7 October · KHL65351The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
- VladivostokLada10 October · KHL65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%4:3OTFinal score 4:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
KHL on the same day
- 74261The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 4:1.5.3
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 225%0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.3.9
- 58421The most likely outcome came true: 124%3:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
- 65351The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%1:2SOFinal score 1:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.5.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →