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KHL · Monday, 5 October, MSK · Minsk-Arena

Dinamo Minsk — Nizhny Novgorod

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Model prediction and result

1:2 SOMissed
Dinamo Minsk53%
Draw in regulation21%
Nizhny Novgorod26%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Dinamo Minsk to win (65% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 65% fails in about 35 matches out of 100 on average.

Dinamo Minsk are clear favourites: 65% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.

Why

  • Dinamo Minsk are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Dinamo Minsk — Nizhny Novgorod3.0–2.2
Dinamo Minsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)65%
Nizhny Novgorod to win (incl. OT and shootout)35%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)47%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Dinamo Minsk
  • Dinamo Minsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Dinamo Minsk

  • 03.10Lokomotiv Yaroslavl4:3
  • 01.10CSKA Moscow1:4
  • 28.09Lada5:4
  • 26.09away · Shanghai1:2
  • 24.09away · Dynamo Moscow3:4 OT

Nizhny Novgorod

  • 03.10away · Sochi6:0
  • 01.10away · Dynamo Moscow3:1
  • 28.09Salavat Ufa0:3
  • 24.09Sochi3:0
  • 22.09Avangard Omsk5:1

Head to head

  • 07.09.2026Dinamo Minsk — Nizhny Novgorod3:4 SO
  • 23.02.2026Nizhny Novgorod — Dinamo Minsk3:4
  • 28.11.2025Nizhny Novgorod — Dinamo Minsk1:2
  • 14.10.2025Dinamo Minsk — Nizhny Novgorod7:1
  • 24.09.2025Dinamo Minsk — Nizhny Novgorod3:2

Full record: 43 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCherepovets1592435–31+420
5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNizhny Novgorod1491440–25+1519
6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNiznekamsk1582547–38+918
10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSalavat Ufa1581646–47-117
11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk1565442–48-617
12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBarys Astana1480654–40+1416

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Dinamo MinskSKA St. Petersburg8 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:2, exactly right.5.6
  • Nizhny NovgorodCherepovets8 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.1

KHL on the same day

  • MagnitogorskVladivostok
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 2:5. Model's score: 4:1.5.3
  • LadaShanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 0:5. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • Bars KazanLokomotiv Yaroslavl
    2The most likely outcome came true: 225%Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.3.9
  • CSKA MoscowSalavat Ufa
    1The most likely outcome came true: 124%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.4.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →