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Swiss National League (hockey) · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK

Lausanne — Ajoie

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Model prediction for 14 October

In play · estimate from before kick-off

Lausanne66%
Draw in regulation18%
Ajoie17%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Lausanne are clear favourites: 78% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 50%.

Why

  • Lausanne are more dangerous in attack: 3.5 expected goals against 1.9.

Facts

  • League table: Lausanne — No. 7, 15 pts; Ajoie — No. 5, 16 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Last 5 meetings: Lausanne 3 wins, Ajoie 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lausanne — Ajoie3.5–1.9
Lausanne to win (incl. OT and shootout)78%
Ajoie to win (incl. OT and shootout)22%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)50%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lausanne
  • Lausanne goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Lausanne

  • 10.10away · Rapperswil-Jona4:1
  • 07.10Lugano2:5
  • 03.10away · Zurich2:3 OT
  • 02.10Biel7:4
  • 30.09Servette6:5 SO

Ajoie

  • 10.10Langnau Tigers5:4 OT
  • 08.10away · Fribourg2:7
  • 04.10Lugano5:4
  • 02.10away · Davos1:3
  • 29.09Lausanne3:0

Head to head

  • 29.09.2026Ajoie — Lausanne3:0
  • 09.03.2026Lausanne — Ajoie2:3 SO
  • 19.12.2025Ajoie — Lausanne3:4 OT
  • 14.11.2025Lausanne — Ajoie3:2 OT
  • 30.09.2025Ajoie — Lausanne1:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFribourg11422338–29+918
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAjoie11242335–38-316
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsLugano10411436–33+315
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLausanne11411534–38-415
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAmbri-Piotta10411426–32-615

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →