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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Friday, 30 October, MSK

Litvinov — Vitkovice

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Model prediction for 30 October

Litvinov44%
Draw in regulation22%
Vitkovice34%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Litvinov are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

  • Litvinov are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.4.

Facts

  • League table: Litvinov — No. 10, 12 pts; Vitkovice — No. 13, 7 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Vitkovice: 4 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Litvinov 1 win, Vitkovice 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Litvinov — Vitkovice2.7–2.4
Litvinov to win (incl. OT and shootout)55%
Vitkovice to win (incl. OT and shootout)45%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Litvinov
  • Litvinov goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Litvinov

  • 11.10away · Mlada Boleslav1:2
  • 09.10Olomouc3:1
  • 04.10Kladno2:3 OT
  • 02.10away · Trinec2:3
  • 29.09Liberec5:4 SO

Vitkovice

  • 11.10away · Sparta Prague0:3
  • 09.10Pardubice2:3
  • 04.10away · Mountfield HK2:3 OT
  • 02.10Karlovy Vary0:3
  • 29.09away · Olomouc4:3

Head to head

  • 20.09.2026Vitkovice — Litvinov2:3
  • 16.01.2026Vitkovice — Litvinov4:1
  • 05.12.2025Litvinov — Vitkovice2:5
  • 15.10.2025Vitkovice — Litvinov8:2
  • 14.09.2025Litvinov — Vitkovice0:3

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLiberec10402429–29014
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLitvinov10311524–28-412
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKometa Brno9221425–28-311
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMlada Boleslav10211623–36-139
13Vitkovice9201621–32-117
14, Relegation play-offOlomouc10110818–36-185

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • Mlada BoleslavSparta Praguepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • PlzenTrinecpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.4
  • Karlovy VaryPardubicepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.7
  • KladnoLiberecpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.0
  • OlomoucCeske Budejovicepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →