KHL · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Cherepovets
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 30%.
Why
- Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 1.8.
Facts
- League table: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — No. 3, 22 pts; Cherepovets — No. 4, 20 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Cherepovets: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 3 wins, Cherepovets 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Cherepovets | 2.5–1.8 | |
| Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 63% | |
| Cherepovets to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 37% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 30% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 70% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
- Lokomotiv Yaroslavl goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Dinamo Minsk6:1
- 05.10away · Bars Kazan2:0
- 03.10away · Dinamo Minsk3:4
- 30.09Novosibirsk3:1
- 27.09away · Novosibirsk2:1
- 13.10SKA St. Petersburg2:0
- 10.10away · Bars Kazan4:1
- 08.10away · Nizhny Novgorod3:2
- 06.10away · SKA St. Petersburg5:2
- 03.10Shanghai2:1 OT
Head to head
- 10.09.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Cherepovets2:1 OT
- 09.03.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Cherepovets4:3 OT
- 02.03.2026Cherepovets — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:3 SO
- 28.11.2025Cherepovets — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:0
- 13.10.2025Cherepovets — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl4:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | CSKA Moscow | 14 | 11 | +22 | 22 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 14 | 11 | +15 | 22 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Cherepovets | 15 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Nizhny Novgorod | 14 | 9 | +15 | 19 |
KHL on the same day
- KhabarovskVladivostokpreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.5
- LadaSochipreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
- Salavat UfaBars Kazanpreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
- SKA St. PetersburgCSKA Moscowpreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.8
- Spartak MoscowShanghaipreliminary67331The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →