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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK

Lukko — IFK Helsinki

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Model prediction for 20 October

Lukko54%
Draw in regulation21%
IFK Helsinki26%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Lukko are clear favourites: 66% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.

Why

  • Lukko are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lukko — IFK Helsinki2.9–2.1
Lukko to win (incl. OT and shootout)66%
IFK Helsinki to win (incl. OT and shootout)34%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)44%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lukko
  • Lukko goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Lukko

  • 09.10away · Ilves5:1
  • 03.10Assat2:5
  • 02.10away · Assat3:0
  • 26.09away · KalPa2:1
  • 24.09Tappara3:2

IFK Helsinki

  • 10.10KalPa6:1
  • 08.10away · Jokerit2:3 OT
  • 03.10away · Vaasan Sport3:2 OT
  • 26.09away · Pelicans1:2
  • 25.09JYP3:4

Head to head

  • 19.09.2026IFK Helsinki — Lukko2:3 OT
  • 13.02.2026IFK Helsinki — Lukko0:4
  • 30.01.2026Lukko — IFK Helsinki6:2
  • 26.11.2025Lukko — IFK Helsinki1:3
  • 17.09.2025IFK Helsinki — Lukko1:5

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa11521330–20+1020
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko11610429–23+620
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
13, Relegation play-offKalPa11401627–29-213
14, Relegation play-offIFK Helsinki11312531–34-313
15, Relegation play-offVaasan Sport11312520–31-1113

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • HameenlinnaPelicans
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.1
  • KooKooTappara
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.7
  • SaiPaKarpat
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
  • TPS TurkuIlves
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.8
  • Vaasan SportJukurit
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →