KHL · Saturday, 24 October, 14:30 MSK

Magnitogorsk — Novosibirsk

Model prediction for 24 October

Magnitogorsk63%

Draw in regulation19%

Novosibirsk18%

Model estimate at 11:06 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Magnitogorsk are clear favourites: 75% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.

Why

Magnitogorsk are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 1.8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Magnitogorsk — Novosibirsk		3.2–1.8
Magnitogorsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)		75%
Novosibirsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)		25%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		42%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Magnitogorsk
Magnitogorsk goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Magnitogorsk

12.10away · Nizhny Novgorod3:2 OT
09.10Salavat Ufa7:1
07.10Vladivostok3:0
05.10Vladivostok2:5
02.10away · Spartak Moscow2:0

Novosibirsk

12.10away · Barys Astana3:2
10.10away · Tractor Chelyabinsk2:1
07.10Salavat Ufa4:5 OT
04.10away · Niznekamsk2:3
02.10away · Salavat Ufa4:2

Head to head

01.04.2026Magnitogorsk — Novosibirsk1:0
30.03.2026Novosibirsk — Magnitogorsk1:0 OT
28.03.2026Novosibirsk — Magnitogorsk1:3
26.03.2026Magnitogorsk — Novosibirsk5:1
24.03.2026Magnitogorsk — Novosibirsk4:1

Full record: 56 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	Magnitogorsk	16	12	1	3	51–30	+21	25
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	CSKA Moscow	14	11	0	3	49–27	+22	22
17, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	Vladivostok	14	5	3	6	35–39	-4	13
18	Novosibirsk	15	5	3	7	33–45	-12	13
19	Avangard Omsk	13	6	0	7	22–34	-12	12

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

KHL on the same day

17:00
Nizhny NovgorodDinamo Minskpreliminary
4357
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →