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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Sunday, 25 October, MSK

Mountfield HK — Pardubice

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Model prediction for 25 October

Mountfield HK35%
Draw in regulation22%
Pardubice42%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Pardubice are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.3 and 2.5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Mountfield HK — Pardubice2.3–2.5
Mountfield HK to win (incl. OT and shootout)45%
Pardubice to win (incl. OT and shootout)55%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Mountfield HK
  • Mountfield HK goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Mountfield HK

  • 11.10Olomouc3:1
  • 09.10away · Trinec2:5
  • 04.10Vitkovice3:2 OT
  • 02.10away · Kladno4:3 SO
  • 29.09Sparta Prague4:3

Pardubice

  • 11.10Trinec5:4 OT
  • 09.10away · Vitkovice3:2
  • 04.10Sparta Prague6:4
  • 02.10Plzen4:2
  • 29.09Ceske Budejovice5:2

Head to head

  • 16.09.2026Pardubice — Mountfield HK3:5
  • 09.01.2026Mountfield HK — Pardubice4:3 SO
  • 28.11.2025Pardubice — Mountfield HK3:1
  • 12.10.2025Mountfield HK — Pardubice2:1 OT
  • 10.09.2025Pardubice — Mountfield HK7:1

Full record: 23 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsTrinec10901049–23+2628
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPardubice11810247–31+1626
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarlovy Vary9600322–16+618
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPlzen10331325–22+316
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMountfield HK10420428–26+216
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsCeske Budejovice10501427–31-416

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • TrinecKarlovy Varypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • KladnoVitkovicepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.3
  • LiberecPlzenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.3
  • Mlada BoleslavCeske Budejovicepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.7
  • LitvinovKometa Brnopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →