Belarus Extraleague (hockey) · Thursday, 22 October, MSK

Novopolotsk — Zhlobin

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Model prediction for 22 October

Novopolotsk13%
Draw in regulation16%
Zhlobin70%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Zhlobin are clear favourites: 82% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 48%.

Why

  • Zhlobin are more dangerous in attack: 3.5 expected goals against 1.7.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Novopolotsk — Zhlobin1.7–3.5
Novopolotsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)18%
Zhlobin to win (incl. OT and shootout)82%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)48%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)52%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Novopolotsk
  • Novopolotsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Novopolotsk

  • 11.10Molodechno2:3
  • 09.10Molodechno1:6
  • 06.10away · Neman Grodno1:4
  • 04.10away · Neman Grodno1:4
  • 29.09Gomel3:1

Zhlobin

  • 12.10away · Brest3:2
  • 10.10away · Brest4:1
  • 04.10away · Yunost Minsk4:1
  • 03.10away · Yunost Minsk4:1
  • 29.09away · Molodechno0:3

Head to head

  • 24.12.2025Zhlobin — Novopolotsk4:2
  • 22.12.2025Zhlobin — Novopolotsk2:1
  • 20.09.2025Novopolotsk — Zhlobin1:4
  • 18.09.2025Novopolotsk — Zhlobin2:5
  • 25.02.2025Novopolotsk — Zhlobin2:5

Full record: 26 meetings →

Belarus Extraleague on the same day

  • BaranavichyGomelpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 2:45.6
  • Yunost MinskLidapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →