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KHL · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Sibir Arena

Novosibirsk — Salavat Ufa

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Model prediction and result

4:5 OTCame true
Novosibirsk29%
Draw in regulation22%
Salavat Ufa48%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:5 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Salavat Ufa to win (62% incl. overtime), came true.

Salavat Ufa are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 35%.

Why

  • Salavat Ufa are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Novosibirsk — Salavat Ufa2.0–2.6
Novosibirsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)38%
Salavat Ufa to win (incl. OT and shootout)62%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)35%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)65%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Novosibirsk
  • Novosibirsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Novosibirsk

  • 04.10away · Niznekamsk2:3
  • 02.10away · Salavat Ufa4:2
  • 30.09away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:3
  • 27.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2
  • 24.09Bars Kazan2:3 SO

Salavat Ufa

  • 05.10away · CSKA Moscow1:3
  • 02.10Novosibirsk2:4
  • 30.09away · Sochi3:6
  • 28.09away · Nizhny Novgorod3:0
  • 26.09away · Dynamo Moscow3:1

Head to head

  • 02.10.2026Salavat Ufa — Novosibirsk2:4
  • 24.02.2026Salavat Ufa — Novosibirsk3:2 OT
  • 23.10.2025Novosibirsk — Salavat Ufa2:5
  • 01.10.2025Salavat Ufa — Novosibirsk5:2
  • 24.09.2025Novosibirsk — Salavat Ufa3:2 SO

Full record: 57 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceKhabarovsk1481523–20+317
10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSalavat Ufa1581646–47-117
11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk1565442–48-617
17, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceVladivostok1453635–39-413
18Novosibirsk1553733–45-1213
19Avangard Omsk1360722–34-1212

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • MagnitogorskSalavat Ufa9 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 7:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
  • Tractor ChelyabinskNovosibirsk10 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 1:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.8

KHL on the same day

  • MagnitogorskVladivostok
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:2.5.4
  • Dynamo MoscowShanghai
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
  • SochiSpartak Moscow
    2The most likely outcome came true: 219%Final score 2:5. Model's score: 1:3.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →