AHL (American Hockey League) · Wednesday, 21 October, 05:00 MSK

Ontario Reign — Calgary Wranglers

Model prediction for 21 October

Ontario Reign52%

Draw in regulation20%

Calgary Wranglers28%

Model estimate at 17:28 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Ontario Reign are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.

Why

Ontario Reign are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.4.

Facts

League table: Ontario Reign — No. 12, 4 pts; Calgary Wranglers — No. 5, 6 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Ontario Reign 4 wins, Calgary Wranglers 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ontario Reign — Calgary Wranglers		3.2–2.4
Ontario Reign to win (incl. OT and shootout)		64%
Calgary Wranglers to win (incl. OT and shootout)		36%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		54%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Ontario Reign
Ontario Reign goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Ontario Reign

12.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds3:2 OT
04.10Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
03.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds6:5 OT
10.05Coachella Valley Firebirds2:3 OT
08.05away · Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6

Calgary Wranglers

11.10Bakersfield Condors4:5
10.10Bakersfield Condors2:1
04.10Abbotsford Canucks4:2
03.10Abbotsford Canucks4:2
19.04away · Colorado Eagles7:5

Head to head

08.12.2025Ontario Reign — Calgary Wranglers2:1 OT
07.12.2025Ontario Reign — Calgary Wranglers6:1
13.11.2025Calgary Wranglers — Ontario Reign3:2
12.11.2025Calgary Wranglers — Ontario Reign1:5
06.04.2025Calgary Wranglers — Ontario Reign2:3

Full record: 20 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts	P%
4	Laval Rocket	4	3	0	1	16–7	+9	6	.750
5	Calgary Wranglers	4	3	0	1	14–10	+4	6	.750
6	Colorado Eagles	4	3	0	1	14–10	+4	6	.750
11	Grand Rapids Griffins	5	3	1	1	17–13	+4	7	.700
12	Ontario Reign	3	2	0	1	11–13	-2	4	.667
13	Wilkes-Barre/Scranton	4	2	1	1	17–9	+8	5	.625

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss, ranked by points percentage

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →