AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Ontario Reign — Henderson Silver Knights
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Ontario Reign are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.
Why
- Ontario Reign are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.6.
Facts
- League table: Ontario Reign — No. 12, 4 pts; Henderson Silver Knights — No. 27, 2 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Ontario Reign 4 wins, Henderson Silver Knights 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ontario Reign — Henderson Silver Knights | 2.9–2.6 | |
| Ontario Reign to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 55% | |
| Henderson Silver Knights to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 45% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 52% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ontario Reign
- Ontario Reign goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds3:2 OT
- 04.10Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 03.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds6:5 OT
- 10.05Coachella Valley Firebirds2:3 OT
- 08.05away · Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 11.10away · San Diego Gulls0:2
- 05.10Bakersfield Condors1:3
- 04.10Bakersfield Condors4:3
- 10.05away · Colorado Eagles2:6
- 07.05away · Colorado Eagles0:4
Head to head
- 26.03.2026Henderson Silver Knights — Ontario Reign3:1
- 09.03.2026Henderson Silver Knights — Ontario Reign1:2
- 07.03.2026Ontario Reign — Henderson Silver Knights4:3 SO
- 10.01.2026Ontario Reign — Henderson Silver Knights5:4 SO
- 31.12.2025Henderson Silver Knights — Ontario Reign2:3 SO
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grand Rapids Griffins | 5 | 3 | +4 | 7 | .700 |
| 12 | Ontario Reign | 3 | 2 | -2 | 4 | .667 |
| 13 | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton | 4 | 2 | +8 | 5 | .625 |
| 26 | Rockford IceHogs | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | .333 |
| 27 | Henderson Silver Knights | 3 | 1 | -3 | 2 | .333 |
| 28 | San Jose Barracuda | 4 | 1 | -9 | 2 | .250 |
AHL on the same day
- 55451The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.3
- 69311The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.5
- 46542The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.1
- 47532The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
- 50502The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.7
- 38622The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.2
- 56441The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.6
- 35652The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →