NHL · Thursday, 1 October, MSK · Xfinity Mobile Arena
Philadelphia Flyers — Pittsburgh Penguins
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:7Came true
In short
Final score 0:7: the model's most likely outcome, Pittsburgh Penguins to win (51% incl. overtime), came true.
Close to a coin flip: Philadelphia Flyers 49%, Pittsburgh Penguins 51% including overtime.
5.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 58%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.9 and 3.0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Philadelphia Flyers — Pittsburgh Penguins | 2.9–3.0 | |
| Philadelphia Flyers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 58% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 42% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Philadelphia Flyers
- Philadelphia Flyers goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.05Carolina Hurricanes2:3 OT
- 08.05Carolina Hurricanes1:4
- 05.05away · Carolina Hurricanes2:3 OT
- 03.05away · Carolina Hurricanes0:3
- 30.04Pittsburgh Penguins1:0 OT
- 30.04away · Philadelphia Flyers0:1 OT
- 28.04Philadelphia Flyers3:2
- 26.04away · Philadelphia Flyers4:2
- 23.04away · Philadelphia Flyers2:5
- 21.04Philadelphia Flyers0:3
Head to head
- 30.04.2026Philadelphia Flyers — Pittsburgh Penguins1:0 OT
- 28.04.2026Pittsburgh Penguins — Philadelphia Flyers3:2
- 26.04.2026Philadelphia Flyers — Pittsburgh Penguins2:4
- 23.04.2026Philadelphia Flyers — Pittsburgh Penguins5:2
- 21.04.2026Pittsburgh Penguins — Philadelphia Flyers0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Pittsburgh Penguins | 7 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 16 | St. Louis Blues | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 29 | Chicago Blackhawks | 7 | 2 | -12 | 4 |
| 30 | Philadelphia Flyers | 8 | 0 | -21 | 3 |
| 31 | Los Angeles Kings | 5 | 0 | -10 | 2 |
Next matches
- New Jersey DevilsPhiladelphia Flyers2 October · NHL62381The most likely outcome came true: 122%3:2OTFinal score 3:2 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- Pittsburgh PenguinsMontreal Canadiens4 October · NHL53471The most likely outcome came true: 122%6:5OTFinal score 6:5 in overtime. Model's score: 5:2.6.3
NHL on the same day
- 46542The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:5.5.9
- 66341The most likely outcome came true: 122%8:4Final score 8:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →