AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Amica Mutual Pavilion
Providence Bruins — Charlotte Checkers
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 6:2: the model's most likely outcome, Charlotte Checkers to win (51% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Close to a coin flip: Providence Bruins 49%, Charlotte Checkers 51% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.5.
- Providence Bruins: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Providence Bruins — Charlotte Checkers | 2.4–2.5 | |
| Providence Bruins to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Charlotte Checkers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 41% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 59% |
111 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Providence Bruins
- Providence Bruins goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10Hartford Wolf Pack0:2
- 04.10Springfield Thunderbirds0:2
- 03.10Utica Comets1:2
- 08.05away · Springfield Thunderbirds0:1 OT
- 06.05away · Springfield Thunderbirds2:3 OT
- 04.10away · Hershey Bears2:3
- 04.10away · Hershey Bears5:2
- 26.04Springfield Thunderbirds1:2 OT
- 25.04Springfield Thunderbirds2:5
- 23.04Springfield Thunderbirds8:1
Head to head
- 01.02.2026Charlotte Checkers — Providence Bruins0:3
- 31.01.2026Charlotte Checkers — Providence Bruins1:4
- 02.11.2025Providence Bruins — Charlotte Checkers5:2
- 12.10.2025Providence Bruins — Charlotte Checkers6:3
- 11.05.2025Charlotte Checkers — Providence Bruins5:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bakersfield Condors | 4 | 2 | +1 | 4 | .500 |
| 21 | Charlotte Checkers | 4 | 2 | -1 | 4 | .500 |
| 22 | Belleville Senators | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 | .500 |
| 29 | Syracuse Crunch | 4 | 1 | -10 | 2 | .250 |
| 30 | Providence Bruins | 5 | 1 | -5 | 2 | .200 |
| 31 | Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 3 | 0 | -7 | 1 | .167 |
Next matches
- Providence BruinsWilkes-Barre/Scranton11 October · AHL51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%2:6Final score 2:6. Model's score: 3:2.5.1
- Springfield ThunderbirdsCharlotte Checkers11 October · AHL35652The most likely outcome came true: 220%1:2SOFinal score 1:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
AHL on the same day
- 39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%1:7Final score 1:7. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
- 50501The most likely outcome came true: 122%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
- 40602The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 2:4.5.6
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 121%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.7
- 52481The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
- 42582The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
- 65351The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 221%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →