VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Thursday, 8 October, 19:00 MSK

Ryazan — Orsk

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Model prediction and result

2:3 OTMissed

Ryazan45%

Draw in regulation25%

Orsk31%

Model estimate at 18:59 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Ryazan to win (58% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 58% fails in about 42 matches out of 100 on average.

Ryazan are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 3.8 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 22%.

Why

Ryazan are more dangerous in attack: 2.1 expected goals against 1.7.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ryazan — Orsk		2.1–1.7
Ryazan to win (incl. OT and shootout)		58%
Orsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)		42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		22%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		78%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Ryazan
Ryazan goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Ryazan

03.10away · Perm0:1
01.10away · Toros Neftekamsk0:3
29.09away · Izhevsk2:3 SO
27.09away · Olympia1:4
23.09Kristall Saratov0:1

Orsk

30.09Bars4:0
28.09Almetyevsk2:1
26.09CSK VVS3:0
20.09away · Khimik5:4 OT
18.09away · Zvezda Moscow2:3 SO

Head to head

04.03.2026Orsk — Ryazan1:3
14.09.2025Ryazan — Orsk1:3
11.01.2025Ryazan — Orsk1:0 OT
08.11.2024Orsk — Ryazan2:1 SO
18.01.2024Orsk — Ryazan3:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
4, Playoffs	HC Norilsk	15	9	2	4	35–33	+2	20
5, Playoffs	Orsk	12	8	3	1	35–22	+13	19
6, Playoffs	AKM	14	8	3	3	43–32	+11	19
17	Toros Neftekamsk	13	6	2	5	30–31	-1	14
18	Ryazan	15	5	4	6	30–32	-2	14
19	Rubin Tyumen	12	7	0	5	29–32	-3	14

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

13:00
AKMOrsk10 October · VHL
5842
1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.4.3
17:00
RyazanMagnitka Magnitogorsk10 October · VHL
4456
2The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 1:2.3.9

VHL on the same day

18:00
CSK VVSZvezda Moscow
5347
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
18:30
AlmetyevskKhimik
5149
1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:2, exactly right.5.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →