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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK

AKM — Orsk

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

3:0Came true
AKM46%
Draw in regulation23%
Orsk31%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, AKM to win (58% incl. overtime), came true.

AKM are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 30%.

Why

  • AKM are more dangerous in attack: 2.4 expected goals against 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: AKM — Orsk2.4–1.9
AKM to win (incl. OT and shootout)58%
Orsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)30%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)70%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap AKM
  • AKM goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

AKM

  • 05.10away · Perm0:3
  • 03.10away · Toros Neftekamsk3:0
  • 01.10away · Izhevsk3:4 OT
  • 29.09away · Olympia3:4 OT
  • 25.09Kristall Saratov7:2

Orsk

  • 08.10away · Ryazan3:2 OT
  • 30.09Bars4:0
  • 28.09Almetyevsk2:1
  • 26.09CSK VVS3:0
  • 20.09away · Khimik5:4 OT

Head to head

  • 02.03.2026Orsk — AKM4:2
  • 12.09.2025AKM — Orsk3:2 SO
  • 15.01.2025AKM — Orsk4:2
  • 06.11.2024Orsk — AKM4:0
  • 02.02.2024Orsk — AKM1:4

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
4, PlayoffsHC Norilsk1592435–33+220
5, PlayoffsOrsk1283135–22+1319
6, PlayoffsAKM1483343–32+1119
7, PlayoffsMetallurg Novokuznetsk1483327–16+1119

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • AKMMagnitka Magnitogorsk12 October · VHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.4.5
  • KalugaOrsk12 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 125%Final score 1:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:1.3.3

VHL on the same day

  • HC NorilskToros Neftekamsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 5:3. Model's score: 2:1.4.5
  • CSK VVSDinamo St. Petersburg
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 3:5. Model's score: 2:3.5.3
  • BarsKhimik
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:3.4.7
  • AlmetyevskZvezda Moscow
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%Final score 3:5. Model's score: 3:1.5.1
  • RyazanMagnitka Magnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 1:2.3.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →