Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
SaiPa — Karpat
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 October
In short
SaiPa are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.
Why
- SaiPa are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: SaiPa — Karpat | 3.1–2.4 | |
| SaiPa to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 62% | |
| Karpat to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 38% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 52% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap SaiPa
- SaiPa goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Jukurit1:2 OT
- 09.10away · Pelicans3:2 OT
- 07.10Kiekko-Espoo8:7 OT
- 03.10away · Hameenlinna1:2 OT
- 02.10away · Kiekko-Espoo3:1
Head to head
- 30.09.2026Karpat — SaiPa4:1
- 24.01.2026SaiPa — Karpat7:4
- 14.01.2026Karpat — SaiPa1:2
- 13.12.2025Karpat — SaiPa3:4 OT
- 11.10.2025SaiPa — Karpat4:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Assat | 12 | 6 | +3 | 22 |
| 4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Karpat | 13 | 5 | +1 | 22 |
| 5, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | JYP | 10 | 7 | +5 | 21 |
| 6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Kiekko-Espoo | 13 | 5 | +10 | 20 |
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | SaiPa | 11 | 5 | +10 | 20 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Lukko | 11 | 6 | +6 | 20 |
Liiga on the same day
- 50502The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.1
- 49512The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.7
- 66341The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.0
- 45552The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.8
- 49512The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →