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KHL · Wednesday, 30 September, MSK · SKA Arena

Shanghai — Magnitogorsk

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Model prediction and result

4:1Missed
Shanghai20%
Draw in regulation18%
Magnitogorsk62%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Magnitogorsk to win (74% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 74% fails in about 26 matches out of 100 on average.

Magnitogorsk are clear favourites: 74% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 6.0 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 61%.

Why

  • Magnitogorsk are more dangerous in attack: 3.7 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Shanghai — Magnitogorsk2.3–3.7
Shanghai to win (incl. OT and shootout)26%
Magnitogorsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)74%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)61%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)39%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Shanghai
  • Shanghai goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Shanghai

  • 28.09Sochi4:1
  • 26.09Dinamo Minsk2:1
  • 22.09Yekaterinburg3:2
  • 15.09away · SKA St. Petersburg2:7
  • 10.09away · Dinamo Minsk4:3 OT

Magnitogorsk

  • 28.09away · Avangard Omsk5:1
  • 26.09Bars Kazan2:1
  • 23.09away · Salavat Ufa4:3
  • 20.09Niznekamsk6:2
  • 18.09Barys Astana3:0

Head to head

  • 03.01.2026Shanghai — Magnitogorsk3:7
  • 03.11.2025Magnitogorsk — Shanghai6:1
  • 15.03.2025Magnitogorsk — Shanghai7:1
  • 21.10.2024Shanghai — Magnitogorsk2:4
  • 30.12.2023Magnitogorsk — Shanghai4:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceMagnitogorsk16121351–30+2125
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow14110349–27+2222
6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNiznekamsk1582547–38+918
7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceShanghai1281336–29+717
8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSKA St. Petersburg1481547–44+317

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Spartak MoscowMagnitogorsk2 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.6
  • CherepovetsShanghai3 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 2:1 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.5

KHL on the same day

  • YekaterinburgLada
    1The most likely outcome came true: 119%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • Bars KazanBarys Astana
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.0
  • Lokomotiv YaroslavlNovosibirsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:1.4.0
  • SochiSalavat Ufa
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 219%Final score 6:3. Model's score: 1:4.5.0
  • Spartak MoscowTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →