PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

KHL · Wednesday, 30 September, MSK · Arena-2000 Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Novosibirsk

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

3:1Came true
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl61%
Draw in regulation21%
Novosibirsk18%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win (75% incl. overtime), came true.

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are clear favourites: 75% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.0 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 24%.

Why

  • Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 1.4.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 5 wins, Novosibirsk 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Novosibirsk2.6–1.4
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win (incl. OT and shootout)75%
Novosibirsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)25%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)24%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)76%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
  • Lokomotiv Yaroslavl goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

  • 27.09away · Novosibirsk2:1
  • 25.09away · Khabarovsk1:3
  • 23.09away · Vladivostok2:1
  • 20.09Barys Astana0:5
  • 18.09Avangard Omsk2:1

Novosibirsk

  • 27.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2
  • 24.09Bars Kazan2:3 SO
  • 20.09away · Sochi5:1
  • 18.09away · Dinamo Minsk1:4
  • 16.09Niznekamsk0:3

Head to head

  • 27.09.2026Novosibirsk — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2
  • 08.01.2026Novosibirsk — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:3 OT
  • 24.11.2025Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Novosibirsk4:1
  • 22.02.2025Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Novosibirsk2:1 OT
  • 17.01.2025Novosibirsk — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:3 SO

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow14110349–27+2222
3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceLokomotiv Yaroslavl14110338–23+1522
4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCherepovets1592435–31+420
17, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceVladivostok1453635–39-413
18Novosibirsk1553733–45-1213
19Avangard Omsk1360722–34-1212

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Salavat UfaNovosibirsk2 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:4. Model's score: 4:1.4.6
  • Dinamo MinskLokomotiv Yaroslavl3 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:1.4.3

KHL on the same day

  • YekaterinburgLada
    1The most likely outcome came true: 119%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • Bars KazanBarys Astana
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.0
  • ShanghaiMagnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 218%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:5.6.1
  • SochiSalavat Ufa
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 219%Final score 6:3. Model's score: 1:4.5.0
  • Spartak MoscowTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →