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KHL · Monday, 28 September, MSK · SKA Arena

Shanghai — Sochi

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Model prediction and result

4:1Came true
Shanghai51%
Draw in regulation20%
Sochi29%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Shanghai to win (62% incl. overtime), came true.

Shanghai are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.

Why

  • Shanghai are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Shanghai — Sochi3.1–2.4
Shanghai to win (incl. OT and shootout)62%
Sochi to win (incl. OT and shootout)38%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)52%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)48%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Shanghai
  • Shanghai goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Shanghai

  • 26.09Dinamo Minsk2:1
  • 22.09Yekaterinburg3:2
  • 15.09away · SKA St. Petersburg2:7
  • 10.09away · Dinamo Minsk4:3 OT
  • 08.09away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:3

Sochi

  • 26.09away · Cherepovets1:3
  • 24.09away · Nizhny Novgorod0:3
  • 20.09Novosibirsk1:5
  • 18.09Bars Kazan3:2
  • 16.09CSKA Moscow0:4

Head to head

  • 30.01.2026Shanghai — Sochi5:2
  • 29.01.2026Shanghai — Sochi1:2
  • 26.01.2026Sochi — Shanghai2:6
  • 15.11.2025Sochi — Shanghai4:2
  • 11.03.2025Sochi — Shanghai2:5

Full record: 35 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNiznekamsk1582547–38+918
7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceShanghai1281336–29+717
8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSKA St. Petersburg1481547–44+317
20Tractor Chelyabinsk1350824–33-910
21Sochi14301119–49-306
22Lada15141024–59-356

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • ShanghaiMagnitogorsk30 September · KHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 218%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:5.6.1
  • SochiSalavat Ufa30 September · KHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 219%Final score 6:3. Model's score: 1:4.5.0

KHL on the same day

  • Avangard OmskMagnitogorsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:5. Model's score: 4:1.5.2
  • Dinamo MinskLada
    1The most likely outcome came true: 115%Final score 5:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.7
  • Dynamo MoscowTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • Nizhny NovgorodSalavat Ufa
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 2:3.4.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →