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KHL · Wednesday, 30 September, MSK · Bolshoy Ice Dome

Sochi — Salavat Ufa

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Model prediction and result

6:3Missed
Sochi20%
Draw in regulation19%
Salavat Ufa61%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 6:3: the model's most likely outcome, Salavat Ufa to win (74% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 74% fails in about 26 matches out of 100 on average.

Salavat Ufa are clear favourites: 74% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.

Why

  • Salavat Ufa are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 1.9.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sochi — Salavat Ufa1.9–3.1
Sochi to win (incl. OT and shootout)26%
Salavat Ufa to win (incl. OT and shootout)74%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)44%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Sochi
  • Sochi goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Sochi

  • 28.09away · Shanghai1:4
  • 26.09away · Cherepovets1:3
  • 24.09away · Nizhny Novgorod0:3
  • 20.09Novosibirsk1:5
  • 18.09Bars Kazan3:2

Salavat Ufa

  • 28.09away · Nizhny Novgorod3:0
  • 26.09away · Dynamo Moscow3:1
  • 23.09Magnitogorsk3:4
  • 20.09Spartak Moscow3:1
  • 18.09Niznekamsk2:0

Head to head

  • 20.03.2026Salavat Ufa — Sochi2:1
  • 24.01.2026Sochi — Salavat Ufa1:2
  • 19.11.2025Sochi — Salavat Ufa2:1
  • 05.10.2025Salavat Ufa — Sochi3:1
  • 23.01.2025Sochi — Salavat Ufa1:8

Full record: 28 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceKhabarovsk1481523–20+317
10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSalavat Ufa1581646–47-117
11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk1565442–48-617
20Tractor Chelyabinsk1350824–33-910
21Sochi14301119–49-306
22Lada15141024–59-356

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Salavat UfaNovosibirsk2 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:4. Model's score: 4:1.4.6
  • SochiNizhny Novgorod3 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 0:6. Model's score: 1:4.5.3

KHL on the same day

  • YekaterinburgLada
    1The most likely outcome came true: 119%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • Bars KazanBarys Astana
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.0
  • Lokomotiv YaroslavlNovosibirsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:1.4.0
  • ShanghaiMagnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 218%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:5.6.1
  • Spartak MoscowTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →