AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Texas Stars — Ontario Reign
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Ontario Reign are favourites: 59% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.4 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 51%.
Why
- Ontario Reign are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Texas Stars — Ontario Reign | 2.5–2.9 | |
| Texas Stars to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 41% | |
| Ontario Reign to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 59% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 51% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Texas Stars
- Texas Stars goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · Hershey Bears1:6
- 11.10away · Hershey Bears1:2
- 04.10Iowa Wild3:4 SO
- 03.10Iowa Wild4:3 SO
- 06.05away · Chicago Wolves1:6
- 12.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds3:2 OT
- 04.10Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 03.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds6:5 OT
- 10.05Coachella Valley Firebirds2:3 OT
- 08.05away · Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
Head to head
- 19.01.2026Texas Stars — Ontario Reign3:1
- 18.01.2026Texas Stars — Ontario Reign3:4
- 10.12.2025Ontario Reign — Texas Stars6:3
- 01.12.2025Ontario Reign — Texas Stars1:4
- 20.03.2025Texas Stars — Ontario Reign1:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grand Rapids Griffins | 5 | 3 | +4 | 7 | .700 |
| 12 | Ontario Reign | 3 | 2 | -2 | 4 | .667 |
| 13 | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton | 4 | 2 | +8 | 5 | .625 |
| 24 | Abbotsford Canucks | 4 | 1 | -4 | 3 | .375 |
| 25 | Texas Stars | 4 | 1 | -6 | 3 | .375 |
| 26 | Rockford IceHogs | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | .333 |
AHL on the same day
- Charlotte CheckersSpringfield Thunderbirdspreliminary68321The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.4
- Wilkes-Barre/ScrantonHartford Wolf Packpreliminary68321The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.7
- Grand Rapids GriffinsCleveland Monsterspreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.4
- Hershey BearsBelleville Senatorspreliminary60401The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.8
- Iowa WildManitoba Moosepreliminary48522The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
- Lehigh Valley PhantomsSyracuse Crunchpreliminary40602The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.4
- Providence BruinsUtica Cometspreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
- Abbotsford CanucksCalgary Wranglerspreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →