NHL · Thursday, 1 October, MSK · Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Islanders
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2:1Missed
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, New York Islanders to win (54% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 54% fails in about 46 matches out of 100 on average.
New York Islanders are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 58%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 3.1.
- Toronto Maple Leafs: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Islanders | 2.8–3.1 | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 46% | |
| New York Islanders to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 54% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 58% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 42% |
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- Totals incl. OT
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- Toronto Maple Leafs goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 30.09Montreal Canadiens2:3
- 16.04away · Ottawa Senators1:3
- 14.04Dallas Stars5:6
- 12.04Florida Panthers2:6
- 10.04away · New York Islanders3:5
- 15.04Carolina Hurricanes1:2
- 13.04Montreal Canadiens1:4
- 11.04Ottawa Senators0:3
- 10.04Toronto Maple Leafs5:3
- 05.04away · Carolina Hurricanes3:4
Head to head
- 10.04.2026New York Islanders — Toronto Maple Leafs5:3
- 18.03.2026Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Islanders1:3
- 04.01.2026New York Islanders — Toronto Maple Leafs4:3 OT
- 03.01.2025New York Islanders — Toronto Maple Leafs1:2
- 31.12.2024Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Islanders3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | St. Louis Blues | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 17, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 19 | Buffalo Sabres | 7 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 | New York Islanders | 6 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 21 | Washington Capitals | 6 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
Next matches
- Toronto Maple LeafsOttawa Senators4 October · NHL44562The most likely outcome came true: 222%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:5.6.0
- New York IslandersNew Jersey Devils4 October · NHL54461The most likely outcome came true: 123%6:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 3:2.5.3
NHL on the same day
- 49512The most likely outcome came true: 222%0:7Final score 0:7. Model's score: 2:5.5.9
- 66341The most likely outcome came true: 122%8:4Final score 8:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →