NHL · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals — Pittsburgh Penguins
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5:3Came true
In short
Final score 5:3: the model's most likely outcome, Washington Capitals to win (52% incl. overtime), came true.
Close to a coin flip: Washington Capitals 52%, Pittsburgh Penguins 48% including overtime.
5.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 59%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 3.0 and 2.8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Washington Capitals — Pittsburgh Penguins | 3.0–2.8 | |
| Washington Capitals to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 52% | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 48% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 59% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 41% |
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- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Washington Capitals
- Washington Capitals goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 04.10away · Tampa Bay Lightning1:3
- 03.10away · Carolina Hurricanes5:2
- 15.04away · Columbus Blue Jackets2:1
- 12.04Pittsburgh Penguins3:0
- 11.04away · Pittsburgh Penguins6:3
- 06.10Winnipeg Jets2:3
- 04.10Montreal Canadiens6:5 OT
- 01.10away · Philadelphia Flyers7:0
- 30.04away · Philadelphia Flyers0:1 OT
- 28.04Philadelphia Flyers3:2
Head to head
- 12.04.2026Washington Capitals — Pittsburgh Penguins3:0
- 11.04.2026Pittsburgh Penguins — Washington Capitals3:6
- 07.11.2025Pittsburgh Penguins — Washington Capitals5:3
- 18.04.2025Pittsburgh Penguins — Washington Capitals5:2
- 22.02.2025Pittsburgh Penguins — Washington Capitals3:8
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Pittsburgh Penguins | 7 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 15, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | St. Louis Blues | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 20 | New York Islanders | 6 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 21 | Washington Capitals | 6 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 22 | Nashville Predators | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
Next matches
- Washington CapitalsNew York Rangers10 October · NHL55451The most likely outcome came true: 124%3:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.2
- Columbus Blue JacketsPittsburgh Penguins10 October · NHL47532The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%3:2SOFinal score 3:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:5.6.3
NHL on the same day
- 34662The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:5.5.8
- 46542The most likely outcome came true: 222%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 2:5, exactly right.6.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →