Tennis: WTA, Beijing, hard · Sunday, 4 October, MSK

Bartunkova N. — Sabalenka A.

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Model prediction and result

2:0Missed
Bartunkova N.13%
Sabalenka A.87%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Sabalenka A. to win (87%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 87% fails in about 13 matches out of 100 on average.

Sabalenka A. are clear favourites: 87% against 13% for the opponent.

Over 18.5 games — 51%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Bartunkova N. 1691, Sabalenka A. 2023.

Probabilities

Games over 18.551%
Games under 18.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Bartunkova N. games
  • Sabalenka A. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Bartunkova N.

  • 02.10Frech M.2:0

Sabalenka A.

  • 02.10Zarazua R.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Kraus S.Bartunkova N.6 October · WTA · Beijing
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.18.5
  • Sabalenka A.Li A.14 October · WTA · Wuhan
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:018.5

WTA on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.20.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.18.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.20.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.20.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 87% will not happen in roughly 13 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →