Model accuracy
An honest probability is checked not by hitting every match but by outcomes at 70% happening about 70% of the time. Every sport has its own model and its own check: on history and on the matches since launch.
Club football
the result: home win, draw or away win
- On history
- 50% · the most likely outcome came true · 48,148 matches
- Since launch
- 52% · 258 of 497 · expected 49%
National teams
the result: home win, draw or away win
- On history
- 62% · the most likely outcome came true · 1,461 matches
- Since launch
- 59% · 44 of 75 · expected 56%
Hockey
the result in regulation: home win, draw or away win
- On history
- 46% · the most likely outcome came true · 3,772 matches
- Since launch
- 60% · 202 of 338 · expected 61%
Tennis
who wins the match
- On history
- 67% · the most likely outcome came true · 9,894 matches
- Since launch
- 65% · 226 of 350 · expected 66%
Basketball
who wins the game, overtime included
- On history
- 69% · the most likely outcome came true · 2,643 matches
- Since launch
- 67% · 55 of 82 · expected 67%
Since launch (28 September 2026) the most likely outcome came true in 785 of 1342 matches with an expected share of 58%. We store the last estimate before each match and never change it afterwards.
The model’s week5 October – 11 OctoberThe model’s most likely outcome came true in 368 of 607 matches (61%), against the 57% it expected — favourites won even more often than it promised.