EuroLeague (basketball) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · BMW Park
Bayern — Virtus Bologna
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87:94Missed
In short
Final score 87:94: the model's most likely outcome, Bayern to win (61% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 61% fails in about 39 matches out of 100 on average.
Bayern are clear favourites: 61% against 39% for the opponent.
The model expects a score around 87:84 — 171 point in total.
Over 169.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.
Why
- Team strength against the league average: Bayern −4.0, Virtus Bologna −4.0 points in regulation.
Probabilities
| Expected points (incl. overtime): Bayern — Virtus Bologna | 87.0–83.5 | |
| Total over 169.5 (incl. OT) | 51% | |
| Total under 169.5 (incl. OT) | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All handicaps
- All totals
- Bayern points
- Virtus Bologna points
- Regulation 1X2
- Offence and defence strength
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Form
- 02.10Partizan Mozzart Bet84:86
- 29.09away · Fenerbahce76:100
- 24.09away · Hapoel Tel Aviv86:84
- 17.04away · Barcelona69:95
- 09.04away · Olimpia Milano94:84
- 01.10Olympiacos96:94
- 29.09away · Olimpia Milano85:87
- 25.09away · Fenerbahce68:78
- 16.04away · Maccabi Tel Aviv89:85
- 10.04Baskonia72:82
Head to head
- 07.04.2026Virtus Bologna — Bayern80:85
- 30.10.2025Bayern — Virtus Bologna86:70
- 17.01.2025Bayern — Virtus Bologna72:82
- 29.10.2024Virtus Bologna — Bayern84:87
- 03.01.2024Virtus Bologna — Bayern85:83
Table
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Besiktas | 2 | 2 | .500 | 2.5 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Virtus Bologna | 2 | 2 | .500 | 2.5 |
| 11 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 2 | 2 | .500 | 2.5 |
| 16 | Paris | 1 | 3 | .250 | 3.5 |
| 17 | Bayern | 1 | 3 | .250 | 3.5 |
| 18 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1 | 4 | .200 | 4 |
Next matches
- Anadolu EfesBayern14 October · EuroLeague67331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —165.3
- ParisVirtus Bologna14 October · EuroLeague58421The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —179.6
EuroLeague on the same day
- 62381The most likely outcome did not happen: 158:77Final score 58:77. Model's score: —.170.7
- 52481The most likely outcome came true: 197:79Final score 97:79. Model's score: —.181.4
- 66341The most likely outcome came true: 192:74Final score 92:74. Model's score: —.162.1
- 74261The most likely outcome came true: 193:82Final score 93:82. Model's score: —.183.2
- 70301The most likely outcome came true: 186:76Final score 86:76. Model's score: —.171.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →