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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Poliforum Benito Juárez

El Calor de Cancun — Lobos Plateados

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Model prediction and result

77:68Missed
El Calor de Cancun40%
Lobos Plateados60%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 77:68: the model's most likely outcome, Lobos Plateados to win (60% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 60% fails in about 40 matches out of 100 on average.

Lobos Plateados are slightly stronger: 60% against 40%.

The model expects a score around 81:84 — 165 points in total.

Over 164.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: El Calor de Cancun −5.0, Lobos Plateados +0.0 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): El Calor de Cancun — Lobos Plateados80.9–84.0
Total over 164.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 164.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • El Calor de Cancun points
  • Lobos Plateados points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

El Calor de Cancun

  • 03.10Gambusinos74:67
  • 02.10Gambusinos82:71
  • 27.09away · Fuerza Regia89:95
  • 26.09away · Fuerza Regia74:82
  • 22.09Diablos Rojos83:86

Lobos Plateados

  • 03.10away · Correcaminos90:85
  • 02.10away · Correcaminos97:75
  • 28.09Mineros81:84
  • 27.09Mineros91:68
  • 22.09away · Santos99:84

Head to head

  • 25.07.2026Lobos Plateados — El Calor de Cancun80:63
  • 24.07.2026Lobos Plateados — El Calor de Cancun96:93
  • 12.10.2024El Calor de Cancun — Lobos Plateados90:76
  • 11.10.2024El Calor de Cancun — Lobos Plateados68:65

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPanteras28199.6792
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLobos Plateados281810.6433
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDorados281711.6074
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsFreseros28919.32112
13El Calor de Cancun28919.32112
14Correcaminos28424.14317

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next match

LNBP on the same day

  • CorrecaminosAbejas
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 76:98. Model's score: —.178.9
  • FreserosDorados
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 85:105. Model's score: —.173.8
  • MinerosSantos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:75. Model's score: —.174.6
  • AstrosGambusinos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:89. Model's score: —.161.2
  • PanterasDiablos Rojos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 77:76. Model's score: —.174.4
  • SolesFuerza Regia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 88:86. Model's score: —.163.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →