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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Auditorio PSF

Soles — Fuerza Regia

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Model prediction and result

88:86Came true
Soles73%
Fuerza Regia27%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 88:86: the model's most likely outcome, Soles to win (73% incl. overtime), came true.

Soles are clear favourites: 73% against 27% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 86:78 — 164 points in total.

Over 163.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Soles +8.6, Fuerza Regia +2.7 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Soles — Fuerza Regia85.8–78.0
Total over 163.5 (incl. OT)49%
Total under 163.5 (incl. OT)51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Soles points
  • Fuerza Regia points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Soles

  • 03.10Diablos Rojos86:43
  • 02.10Diablos Rojos84:93
  • 27.09away · Dorados97:64
  • 26.09away · Dorados98:81
  • 22.09Panteras76:77

Fuerza Regia

  • 04.10away · Astros87:101
  • 03.10away · Astros77:74
  • 27.09El Calor de Cancun95:89
  • 26.09El Calor de Cancun82:74
  • 22.09away · Correcaminos93:52

Head to head

  • 27.07.2026Fuerza Regia — Soles95:89 OT
  • 26.07.2026Fuerza Regia — Soles94:91 OT
  • 10.09.2025Fuerza Regia — Soles102:81
  • 09.09.2025Fuerza Regia — Soles91:97
  • 17.10.2024Soles — Fuerza Regia86:82

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsSoles28217.750—
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAstros28208.7141
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFuerza Regia28199.6792
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPanteras28199.6792

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next match

  • SolesFuerza Regia8 October · LNBP
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 75:92. Model's score: —.164.5

LNBP on the same day

  • CorrecaminosAbejas
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 76:98. Model's score: —.178.9
  • El Calor de CancunLobos Plateados
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 77:68. Model's score: —.164.9
  • FreserosDorados
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 85:105. Model's score: —.173.8
  • MinerosSantos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:75. Model's score: —.174.6
  • AstrosGambusinos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:89. Model's score: —.161.2
  • PanterasDiablos Rojos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 77:76. Model's score: —.174.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 73% will not happen in roughly 27 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →