Liga ACB (Spanish basketball league) · Saturday, 24 October, 19:00 MSK

Manresa — San Pablo Burgos

Model prediction for 24 October

Manresa45%

San Pablo Burgos55%

Model estimate at 13:31 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

San Pablo Burgos are slightly stronger: 55% against 45%.

The model expects a score around 96:97 — 193 points in total.

Over 191.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

Team strength against the league average: Manresa −6.5, San Pablo Burgos −1.5 points in regulation.

Facts

League table: Manresa — No. 18, 0–3; San Pablo Burgos — No. 9, 1–2.
Last 5 meetings: Manresa 3 wins, San Pablo Burgos 2.
Days of rest before the match: Manresa 11, San Pablo Burgos 13.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Manresa — San Pablo Burgos		95.5–97.2
Total over 191.5 (incl. OT)		51%
Total under 191.5 (incl. OT)		49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All handicaps
All totals
Manresa points
San Pablo Burgos points
Regulation 1X2
Offence and defence strength

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Form

Manresa

13.10away · Bahcesehir Kol.88:100
11.10away · Real Madrid83:120
07.10Ulm101:89
03.10Breogan95:101
30.09away · PAOK78:93

San Pablo Burgos

11.10away · Bilbao87:96
07.10away · Aris80:93
04.10away · Forca Lleida94:81
30.09Cedevita Olimpija85:81
27.09Baskonia97:98

Head to head

26.04.2026Manresa — San Pablo Burgos94:101
20.12.2025San Pablo Burgos — Manresa100:102 OT
30.01.2022Manresa — San Pablo Burgos93:68
06.11.2021San Pablo Burgos — Manresa82:90
31.01.2021Manresa — San Pablo Burgos87:101

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	L	PCT	GB
8, Playoffs	Tenerife	3	2	1	.667	1
9	San Pablo Burgos	3	1	2	.333	2
10	Basquet Girona	3	1	2	.333	2
17, Relegation	Joventut Badalona	2	0	2	.000	2.5
18, Relegation	Manresa	3	0	3	.000	3

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Liga ACB on the same day

20:30
MurciaLeyma Corunapreliminary
8911
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —186.3
22:00
BarcelonaBasket Zaragozapreliminary
8317
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —183.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →