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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Gimnasio Marcelino Gonzalez

Mineros — Santos

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Model prediction and result

96:75Came true
Mineros72%
Santos28%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 96:75: the model's most likely outcome, Mineros to win (72% incl. overtime), came true.

Mineros are clear favourites: 72% against 28% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 91:83 — 175 points in total.

Over 174.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Mineros −1.1, Santos −6.8 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Mineros — Santos91.1–83.5
Total over 174.5 (incl. OT)49%
Total under 174.5 (incl. OT)51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Mineros points
  • Santos points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Mineros

  • 03.10Abejas74:81
  • 02.10Abejas90:78
  • 28.09away · Lobos Plateados84:81
  • 27.09away · Lobos Plateados68:91
  • 22.09Gambusinos87:85

Santos

  • 03.10Freseros108:87
  • 02.10Freseros96:81
  • 27.09away · Abejas78:92
  • 26.09away · Abejas87:86
  • 22.09Lobos Plateados84:99

Head to head

  • 25.07.2026Santos — Mineros95:80
  • 24.07.2026Santos — Mineros87:86
  • 04.10.2025Mineros — Santos109:86
  • 03.10.2025Mineros — Santos91:77
  • 04.08.2025Mineros — Santos84:66

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDorados281711.6074
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMineros281513.5366
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAbejas281216.4299
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSantos281117.39310
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDiablos Rojos281117.39310

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next match

  • MinerosSantos8 October · LNBP
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 82:93. Model's score: —.174.4

LNBP on the same day

  • CorrecaminosAbejas
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 76:98. Model's score: —.178.9
  • El Calor de CancunLobos Plateados
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 77:68. Model's score: —.164.9
  • FreserosDorados
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 85:105. Model's score: —.173.8
  • AstrosGambusinos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:89. Model's score: —.161.2
  • PanterasDiablos Rojos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 77:76. Model's score: —.174.4
  • SolesFuerza Regia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 88:86. Model's score: —.163.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →