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Liga ACB (Spanish basketball league) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Palacio de Deportes de Murcia

Murcia — Tenerife

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Model prediction and result

77:90Missed
Murcia67%
Tenerife33%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 77:90: the model's most likely outcome, Murcia to win (67% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 67% fails in about 33 matches out of 100 on average.

Murcia are clear favourites: 67% against 33% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 92:87 — 179 points in total.

Over 177.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Murcia +3.0, Tenerife +1.1 points in regulation.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Murcia 1 win, Tenerife 4.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Murcia — Tenerife91.8–86.7
Total over 177.5 (incl. OT)51%
Total under 177.5 (incl. OT)49%

223 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Murcia points
  • Tenerife points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Murcia

  • 04.10Barcelona100:94
  • 27.09away · Basquet Girona77:84
  • 06.06Barcelona76:100
  • 04.06away · Barcelona90:87
  • 02.06Barcelona68:91

Tenerife

  • 06.10away · London Lions77:89
  • 03.10away · Unicaja80:75
  • 30.09Turk Telekom82:75
  • 27.09Basket Zaragoza80:81
  • 13.06Barcelona76:85

Head to head

  • 25.04.2026Murcia — Tenerife86:80
  • 18.10.2025Tenerife — Murcia96:80
  • 08.02.2025Murcia — Tenerife77:78
  • 21.12.2024Tenerife — Murcia82:74
  • 27.01.2024Tenerife — Murcia75:73

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
7, PlayoffsObradoiro CAB321.6671
8, PlayoffsTenerife321.6671
9San Pablo Burgos312.3332
14Valencia312.3332
15Murcia312.3332
16MoraBanc Andorra202.0002.5

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

  • TenerifeMaxima Roma14 October · EuroCup
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —164.9
  • ValenciaMurcia18 October · Liga ACB
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —183.6

Liga ACB on the same day

  • Obradoiro CABForca Lleida
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 91:89. Model's score: —.184.8
  • Real MadridManresa
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 120:83. Model's score: —.190.6
  • BaskoniaJoventut Badalona
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 93:73. Model's score: —.185.0
  • BilbaoSan Pablo Burgos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:87. Model's score: —.183.4
  • BarcelonaValencia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 89:86. Model's score: —.193.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →