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Liga Nacional de Básquet (Argentina) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK

Racing de Chivilcoy — Gimnasia

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Model prediction and result

72:78Came true
Racing de Chivilcoy41%
Gimnasia59%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 72:78: the model's most likely outcome, Gimnasia to win (59% incl. overtime), came true.

Gimnasia are slightly stronger: 59% against 41%.

The model expects a score around 79:81 — 160 points in total.

Over 159.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Racing de Chivilcoy −3.1, Gimnasia +3.4 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Racing de Chivilcoy — Gimnasia78.6–81.4
Total over 159.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 159.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Racing de Chivilcoy points
  • Gimnasia points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Racing de Chivilcoy

  • 09.10San Martin126:123
  • 18.04Regatas76:93
  • 13.04San Lorenzo80:66
  • 11.04Obera TC91:84
  • 01.04away · Platense89:90

Gimnasia

  • 09.10away · San Lorenzo73:89
  • 05.10La Union92:86
  • 01.10away · Penarol57:62
  • 29.09away · Lanus92:74
  • 21.06Quimsa68:56

Head to head

  • 19.02.2026Gimnasia — Racing de Chivilcoy77:74
  • 19.11.2025Racing de Chivilcoy — Gimnasia70:93

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPenarol1101.0001
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsGimnasia642.6670.5
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAtenas321.6671
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsArgentino321.6671
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsRacing de Chivilcoy321.6671
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLa Union211.5001.5

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

  • ArgentinoGimnasia13 October · Liga Nacional
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 82:87. Model's score: —.156.4
  • Obera TCRacing de Chivilcoy14 October · Liga Nacional
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 78:84. Model's score: —.161.3

Liga Nacional on the same day

  • ArgentinoSan Martin
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 82:79. Model's score: —.157.4
  • QuimsaBoca Juniors
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 105:96. Model's score: —.164.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →