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Liga ACB (Spanish basketball league) · Sunday, 18 October, MSK

Valencia — Murcia

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Model prediction for 18 October

Valencia80%
Murcia20%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Valencia are clear favourites: 80% against 20% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 97:87 — 184 points in total.

Over 182.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Valencia +8.1, Murcia +1.5 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Valencia — Murcia96.8–86.8
Total over 182.5 (incl. OT)51%
Total under 182.5 (incl. OT)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Valencia points
  • Murcia points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Valencia

  • 13.10Olympiacos97:102
  • 11.10away · Barcelona86:89
  • 08.10Hapoel Tel Aviv93:82
  • 04.10away · Basket Zaragoza97:82
  • 02.10away · Lyon-Villeurbanne105:92

Murcia

  • 11.10Tenerife77:90
  • 04.10Barcelona100:94
  • 27.09away · Basquet Girona77:84
  • 06.06Barcelona76:100
  • 04.06away · Barcelona90:87

Head to head

  • 08.03.2026Valencia — Murcia110:84
  • 21.12.2025Murcia — Valencia92:80
  • 05.04.2025Valencia — Murcia71:86
  • 15.12.2024Murcia — Valencia88:96
  • 25.05.2024Valencia — Murcia77:84

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
13Leyma Coruna312.3332
14Valencia312.3332
15Murcia312.3332
16MoraBanc Andorra202.0002.5

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Liga ACB on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →