A-League Men (Australia): 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 156 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 156 matches 10,000 times. Newcastle Jets have the best chance to win the regular season: 23%, Auckland FC 22%.
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Finals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland FC | 0 (0) | 44 | 12 | 22% | 82% |
| 2 | Newcastle Jets | 0 (0) | 44 | 11 | 23% | 80% |
| 3 | Melbourne Victory | 0 (0) | 42 | 9 | 16% | 73% |
| 4 | Sydney FC | 0 (0) | 39 | 7 | 9% | 62% |
| 5 | Adelaide United | 0 (0) | 38 | 6 | 9% | 60% |
| 6 | Melbourne City FC | 0 (0) | 38 | 10 | 8% | 59% |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 0 (0) | 34 | 8 | 4% | 41% |
| 8 | Perth Glory | 0 (0) | 33 | 5 | 3% | 37% |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 0 (0) | 32 | 4 | 3% | 31% |
| 10 | Brisbane Roar FC | 0 (0) | 30 | 2 | 1% | 25% |
| 11 | Western Sydney Wanderers FC | 0 (0) | 30 | 3 | 1% | 24% |
| 12 | Wellington Phoenix | 0 (0) | 30 | 1 | 2% | 25% |
Chance of every place
Show the 12 × 12 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland FC | 22 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Newcastle Jets | 23 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Melbourne Victory | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Sydney FC | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Adelaide United | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| Melbourne City FC | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| Macarthur FC | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Perth Glory | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Central Coast Mariners | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| Brisbane Roar FC | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| Western Sydney Wanderers FC | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 18 |
| Wellington Phoenix | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 19 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.