Austrian Bundesliga: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 84 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 84 matches 10,000 times. Rapid Wien have the best chance to be first before the split: 52%, Salzburg 27%.
Race for first place
| Date | LASK | Rapid Wien | Salzburg | Sturm Graz | Wolfsberger AC | Ried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 August | 28% | 5% | 18% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| 10 August | 46% | 6% | 20% | 17% | 4% | 1% |
| 17 August | 41% | 19% | 20% | 17% | 1% | <1% |
| 24 August | 45% | 19% | 22% | 10% | 1% | <1% |
| 31 August | 50% | 24% | 20% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 September | 62% | 11% | 24% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 14 September | 48% | 20% | 25% | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 21 September | 36% | 25% | 36% | 3% | — | <1% |
| 28 September | 37% | 26% | 33% | 3% | — | <1% |
| 5 October | 37% | 26% | 33% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 October | 18% | 52% | 25% | 4% | — | <1% |
| 14 October | 16% | 52% | 27% | 4% | — | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Wien | 21 (8) | 48 | 11 | 52%▲26 | >99% |
| 2 | Salzburg | 18 (8) | 45 | 9 | 27%▼6 | >99% |
| 3 | LASK | 16 (8) | 43 | 10 | 16%▼21 | 99%▼1 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 14 (8) | 39 | 12 | 4%▲1 | 96%▲4 |
| 5 | Ried | 11 (8) | 31 | 8 | <1% | 66%▲14 |
| 6 | Hartberg | 11 (8) | 28 | 2 | <1% | 43%▲8 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 9 (8) | 26 | 7 | — | 28%▼1 |
| 8 | WSG Tirol | 8 (8) | 25 | 5 | <1% | 23%▼13 |
| 9 | Altach | 6 (8) | 24 | 6 | <1% | 21%▲7 |
| 10 | Austria Wien | 7 (8) | 22 | 3 | — | 12%▼10 |
| 11 | Austria Lustenau | 8 (8) | 20 | 1 | — | 7%▼4 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 5 (8) | 19 | 4 | — | 6%▼5 |
Chance of every place
Show the 12 × 12 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid Wien | 52 | 27 | 14 | 6 | 1 | |||||||
| Salzburg | 27 | 32 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| LASK | 16 | 26 | 31 | 19 | 5 | 1 | ||||||
| Sturm Graz | 4 | 12 | 24 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Ried | 1 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Hartberg | 1 | 5 | 17 | 20 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 3 | ||
| Grazer AK | 1 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 6 | ||
| WSG Tirol | 2 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 8 | |||
| Altach | 2 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 10 | |||
| Austria Wien | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 17 | |||
| Austria Lustenau | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 24 | ||||
| Wolfsberger AC | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 32 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Austrian Bundesliga: matches and table →
Austrian Bundesliga: power rankings →