Danish Superliga: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 72 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 72 matches 10,000 times. FC København have the best chance to be first before the split: 58%, FC Midtjylland 25%.
Race for first place
| Date | FC København | Nordsjælland | FC Midtjylland | AGF | Viborg | Brøndby IF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 July | 21% | 7% | 28% | 19% | 7% | 6% |
| 3 August | 23% | 12% | 32% | 11% | 5% | 6% |
| 10 August | 24% | 13% | 32% | 12% | 5% | 8% |
| 17 August | 35% | 16% | 27% | 7% | 5% | 9% |
| 24 August | 19% | 26% | 28% | 5% | 9% | 11% |
| 31 August | 20% | 34% | 21% | 3% | 14% | 8% |
| 7 September | 46% | 17% | 28% | <1% | 5% | 2% |
| 14 September | 52% | 22% | 21% | <1% | 3% | 3% |
| 21 September | 67% | 10% | 17% | <1% | 6% | <1% |
| 28 September | 65% | 11% | 17% | <1% | 5% | <1% |
| 5 October | 67% | 10% | 17% | <1% | 5% | <1% |
| 12 October | 58% | 8% | 25% | <1% | 9% | 1% |
| 13 October | 58% | 7% | 25% | <1% | 9% | 1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC København | 24 (10) | 46 | 12 | 58%▼9 | >99% |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 22 (10) | 43 | 10 | 25%▲8 | 99% |
| 3 | Viborg | 20 (10) | 39 | 4 | 9%▲4 | 98%▲4 |
| 4 | Nordsjælland | 18 (10) | 39 | 11 | 7%▼3 | 96%▼1 |
| 5 | Brøndby IF | 16 (10) | 33 | 6 | 1%▲1 | 77%▲18 |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 12 (10) | 27 | 9 | <1% | 35%▲1 |
| 7 | Silkeborg | 11 (10) | 25 | 8 | <1% | 27%▼7 |
| 8 | AGF | 8 (10) | 25 | 3 | <1% | 27%▲5 |
| 9 | OB | 10 (10) | 25 | 7 | <1% | 20%▼1 |
| 10 | Randers FC | 10 (10) | 22 | 2 | — | 10%▼8 |
| 11 | Lyngby | 7 (10) | 22 | 1 | — | 9%▼9 |
| 12 | Sønderjyske | 5 (10) | 18 | 5 | — | 2%▼2 |
Chance of every place
Show the 12 × 12 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC København | 58 | 24 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||||||
| FC Midtjylland | 25 | 33 | 22 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||||||
| Viborg | 9 | 20 | 27 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Nordsjælland | 7 | 18 | 28 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Brøndby IF | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 29 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| AC Horsens | 1 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| Silkeborg | 1 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 5 | ||
| AGF | 1 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 5 | ||
| OB | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 7 | ||
| Randers FC | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 14 | |||
| Lyngby | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 18 | |||
| Sønderjyske | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 47 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Danish Superliga: matches and table →
Danish Superliga: power rankings →