Egyptian Premier League: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 130 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 130 matches 10,000 times. Pyramids FC have the best chance to be first before the split: 57%, Al Ahly SC 34%.
Race for first place
| Date | Pyramids FC | Al Ahly SC | Zamalek SC | Ceramica Cleopatra | Al Masry SC | Wadi Degla FC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 August | 30% | 28% | 12% | 4% | 6% | 4% |
| 31 August | 33% | 31% | 13% | 4% | 7% | 6% |
| 7 September | 34% | 39% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 4% |
| 14 September | 49% | 26% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 21 September | 47% | 30% | 10% | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 28 September | 47% | 30% | 10% | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 October | 48% | 29% | 11% | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 October | 43% | 41% | 5% | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| 14 October | 57% | 34% | 4% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 18 (6) | 44 | 10 | 57%▲9 |
| 2 | Al Ahly SC | 16 (6) | 41 | 14 | 34%▲5 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 13 (6) | 34 | 13 | 4%▼7 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 12 (6) | 33 | 18 | 3%▼6 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad Alexandria | 13 (6) | 31 | 8 | 1% |
| 6 | Modern Sport FC | 13 (6) | 29 | 1 | 1%▲1 |
| 7 | National Bank | 9 (6) | 27 | 3 | <1% |
| 8 | Al Masry SC | 7 (6) | 27 | 17 | <1% |
| 9 | ZED FC | 8 (6) | 26 | 11 | <1% |
| 10 | Petrojet-Suez | 8 (6) | 26 | 7 | <1% |
| 11 | Al Mokawloon Al Arab | 8 (6) | 26 | 16 | <1% |
| 12 | Wadi Degla FC | 6 (6) | 24 | 5 | <1% |
| 13 | Smouha SC | 7 (6) | 23 | 9 | — |
| 14 | Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI | 4 (6) | 22 | 19 | — |
| 15 | Tala'ea El Gaish | 7 (6) | 21 | 4 | <1% |
| 16 | Olympic El Qanah FC | 7 (6) | 21 | 6 | — |
| 17 | Asyut Petroleum | 5 (6) | 18 | 2 | <1% |
| 18 | El Gouna FC | 2 (6) | 17 | 12 | — |
| 19 | Abo Qir Semad | 3 (6) | 17 | 20 | — |
| 20 | Ghazl Al Mahalla | 1 (6) | 14 | 15 | — |
Chance of every place
Show the 20 × 20 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyramids FC | 57 | 28 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Al Ahly SC | 34 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Zamalek SC | 4 | 12 | 23 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Ceramica Cleopatra | 3 | 10 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Al Ittihad Alexandria | 1 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Modern Sport FC | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| National Bank | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Al Masry SC | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| ZED FC | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Petrojet-Suez | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Al Mokawloon Al Arab | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wadi Degla FC | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Smouha SC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 4 | ||
| Tala'ea El Gaish | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| Olympic El Qanah FC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | |||
| Asyut Petroleum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 12 | |||||
| El Gouna FC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | |||||
| Abo Qir Semad | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 19 | ||||||
| Ghazl Al Mahalla | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 38 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Egyptian Premier League: matches and table →
Egyptian Premier League: power rankings →