Eredivisie (Netherlands): 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 234 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 234 matches 10,000 times. PSV Eindhoven have the best chance to win the title: 47%, Feyenoord 32%. Closest to the drop: Willem II (51%).
Race for the title
| Date | PSV Eindhoven | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar | Ajax | FC Twente | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 August | 28% | 13% | 7% | 12% | 6% | 7% |
| 17 August | 34% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 7% |
| 24 August | 45% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 6% |
| 31 August | 55% | 8% | 15% | 10% | 5% | 3% |
| 7 September | 63% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 3% |
| 14 September | 62% | 13% | 9% | 9% | 5% | <1% |
| 21 September | 41% | 24% | 13% | 10% | 11% | <1% |
| 28 September | 43% | 23% | 13% | 10% | 10% | <1% |
| 5 October | 42% | 23% | 13% | 10% | 10% | <1% |
| 12 October | 46% | 33% | 8% | 7% | 6% | <1% |
| 14 October | 47% | 32% | 7% | 7% | 6% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “UCL incl. qual.” counts “UCL” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL | UCL incl. qual. | Europe | Play-out | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 19 (8) | 76 | 18 | 47%▲5 | 47%▲5 | 73%▲7 | 87%▼3 | — | — |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 20 (8) | 73 | 13 | 32%▲9 | 32%▲9 | 60%▲14 | 78%▼2 | — | — |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 19 (8) | 65 | 8 | 7%▼6 | 7%▼6 | 22%▼8 | 41%▼26 | <1% | — |
| 4 | Ajax | 15 (8) | 64 | 15 | 7%▼3 | 7%▼3 | 21%▼5 | 41%▼21 | — | — |
| 5 | FC Twente | 17 (8) | 64 | 6 | 6%▼4 | 6%▼4 | 18%▼7 | 36%▼25 | — | — |
| 6 | FC Groningen | 14 (8) | 51 | 7 | <1% | <1% | 2%▲1 | 5%▼1 | 1%▼1 | <1% |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 11 (8) | 49 | 9 | <1% | <1% | 1%▼1 | 4%▼7 | 1%▼1 | 1%▲1 |
| 8 | SC Heerenveen | 9 (8) | 47 | 16 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1%▼3 | 2%▼1 | 1%▲1 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 11 (8) | 46 | 12 | <1% | <1% | <1%▼1 | 1%▼7 | 2% | 1%▲1 |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 (8) | 45 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1%▼3 | 3%▼2 | 2%▲1 |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 8 (8) | 44 | 17 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1%▼1 | 4%▼4 | 3%▲1 |
| 12 | Fortuna Sittard | 14 (8) | 42 | 11 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1%▼1 | 5%▼5 | 4%▲3 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 6 (8) | 37 | 14 | — | — | <1% | <1%▼1 | 9%▼8 | 12%▲7 |
| 14 | Telstar | 6 (8) | 36 | 5 | — | — | — | <1% | 10%▼8 | 12%▲6 |
| 15 | Cambuur | 8 (8) | 33 | 1 | — | — | — | <1% | 16%▼13 | 22%▲9 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 4 (8) | 28 | 10 | — | — | — | — | 17%▼17 | 45%▲23 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 3 (8) | 27 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 16%▼20 | 46%▲21 |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 (8) | 26 | 3 | — | — | — | — | 16%▼18 | 51%▲27 |
Chance of every place
Show the 18 × 18 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 47 | 26 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Feyenoord | 32 | 28 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 15 | 19 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Ajax | 7 | 14 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| FC Twente | 6 | 12 | 18 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| FC Groningen | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| SC Heerenveen | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Excelsior | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| FC Utrecht | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 4 | ||||
| Telstar | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 4 | ||||
| Cambuur | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 9 | |||||
| PEC Zwolle | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 24 | |||||||
| ADO Den Haag | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 21 | 25 | ||||||||
| Willem II | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 30 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.