J1 League (Japan): 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 290 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 290 matches 10,000 times. Sanfrecce Hiroshima have the best chance to win the title: 52%, FC Tokyo 12%. Closest to the drop: Tokyo Verdy (70%).
Race for the title
| Date | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Kashima Antlers | Machida Zelvia | Vissel Kobe | FC Tokyo | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 August | 17% | 22% | 10% | 9% | 3% | 6% |
| 17 August | 32% | 23% | 12% | 9% | 2% | 6% |
| 24 August | 26% | 28% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 9% |
| 31 August | 21% | 39% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 11% |
| 7 September | 22% | 15% | 30% | 14% | 6% | 4% |
| 14 September | 36% | 9% | 21% | 16% | 9% | 4% |
| 21 September | 50% | 5% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 6% |
| 28 September | 50% | 6% | 11% | 14% | 8% | 7% |
| 5 October | 49% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 8% | 6% |
| 12 October | 52% | 5% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 8% |
| 13 October | 52% | 5% | 11% | 8% | 12% | 9% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 20 (9) | 80 | 14 | 52%▲3 | — |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 20 (9) | 70 | 7 | 12%▲4 | — |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 20 (9) | 69 | 16 | 11%▼1 | <1% |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 19 (9) | 68 | 17 | 8%▼6 | <1% |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 21 (9) | 67 | 8 | 9%▲3 | <1% |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 16 (9) | 65 | 11 | 5%▲1 | <1% |
| 7 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 15 (9) | 58 | 18 | 1%▼1 | 1% |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 13 (9) | 56 | 6 | 1%▼1 | 2%▲1 |
| 9 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 12 (9) | 53 | 20 | <1%▼1 | 4%▲1 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 13 (9) | 52 | 2 | <1%▼1 | 4%▲1 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 12 (9) | 49 | 12 | <1% | 8% |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 (9) | 48 | 19 | <1% | 10%▼8 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 13 (9) | 48 | 3 | <1% | 8%▼7 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 8 (9) | 43 | 13 | <1% | 21%▲1 |
| 15 | Avispa Fukuoka | 7 (9) | 43 | 10 | — | 21%▼7 |
| 16 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 (9) | 41 | 1 | <1% | 27%▲4 |
| 17 | Gamba Osaka | 6 (9) | 41 | 15 | — | 28%▲3 |
| 18 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 (9) | 40 | 4 | — | 31%▲8 |
| 19 | JEF United Chiba | 5 (9) | 33 | 5 | — | 64%▼2 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 4 (9) | 32 | 9 | — | 70%▲6 |
Chance of every place
Show the 20 × 20 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 52 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| FC Tokyo | 12 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Machida Zelvia | 11 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Vissel Kobe | 8 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Kashima Antlers | 5 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Yokohama F.Marinos | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kawasaki Frontale | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Urawa Red Diamonds | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fagiano Okayama FC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cerezo Osaka | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Nagoya Grampus | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Kyoto Sanga FC | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | ||||
| Avispa Fukuoka | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | ||||
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 7 | ||||
| Gamba Osaka | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 7 | ||||
| Mito Hollyhock | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 8 | |||||
| JEF United Chiba | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 30 | ||||||||
| Tokyo Verdy | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 23 | 33 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.