Uzbekistan Super League, round 23 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK
AGMK — Navbahor Namangan
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:2Missed
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Navbahor Namangan to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.
Navbahor Namangan are slightly stronger: 44% against 29%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Navbahor Namangan are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AGMK — Navbahor Namangan What is xG? | 1.2–1.6 | |
| AGMK not to lose | 56% | |
| Navbahor Namangan not to lose | 71% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AGMK
- AGMK goals
- Navbahor Namangan goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 20.09away · Sogdiana2:1
- 09.09Pakhtakor Tashkent1:3
- 03.09Xorazm1:0
- 25.08away · Surkhon-20110:0
- 19.08Dinamo Samarkand0:1
- 17.09Dinamo Samarkand3:2
- 11.09away · Buxoro4:1
- 04.09Lokomotiv Tashkent1:1
- 26.08away · Mashal Muborak2:0
- 21.08Nasaf Qarshi1:0
Head to head
- 17.07.2026Navbahor Namangan — AGMK2:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 23 | 15 | +21 | 52 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 23 | 13 | +18 | 45 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 23 | 11 | +9 | 38 |
| 6 | Buxoro | 23 | 11 | +4 | 37 |
| 7 | AGMK | 23 | 10 | +2 | 36 |
| 8 | Dinamo Samarkand | 23 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
Next matches
- Mashal MuborakAGMK15 October · Uzbekistan Super League1522632The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
- Navbahor NamanganPakhtakor Tashkent17 October · Uzbekistan Super League3828331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- 3126432The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:3, exactly right.3.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →