Saudi Pro League, round 8 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Maydan Tamweel Aloula
Al Fateh FC — Al Ahli
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:4Came true
In short
Final score 0:4: the model's most likely outcome, Al Ahli to win (63%), came true.
Al Ahli are clear favourites: 63% against 14% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Ahli are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Fateh FC — Al Ahli What is xG? | 1.1–2.3 | |
| Al Fateh FC not to lose | 37% | |
| Al Ahli not to lose | 86% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Al Fateh FC
- Al Fateh FC goals
- Al Ahli goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 13.09away · Neom SC2:4
- 09.09Al Diriyah1:2
- 05.09away · Al-Taawoun0:0
- 29.08Al Ittihad0:0
- 26.08away · Al-Faisaly1:1
- 11.09Al Hazem3:1
- 08.09away · Al Qadsiah2:3
- 04.09Al Riyadh5:0
- 01.09away · Al Hilal0:3
- 29.08away · Al Kholood1:3
Head to head
- 06.05.2026Al Ahli — Al Fateh FC3:1
- 26.12.2025Al Fateh FC — Al Ahli2:1
- 07.02.2025Al Ahli — Al Fateh FC2:0
- 27.08.2024Al Fateh FC — Al Ahli1:0
- 02.03.2024Al Ahli — Al Fateh FC1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Neom SC | 8 | 5 | +7 | 16 |
| 6 | Al Ahli | 8 | 5 | +10 | 15 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 8 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly | 7 | 0 | -8 | 3 |
| 16, Relegation | Al Fateh FC | 8 | 0 | -11 | 3 |
| 17, Relegation | Al-Taawoun | 8 | 0 | -12 | 3 |
Next matches
- Al HazemAl Fateh FC15 October · Saudi Pro League4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- Al-FayhaAl Ahli19 October · Saudi Pro League1122672The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.9
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- 1221672The most likely outcome came true: 20:5Final score 0:5. Model's score: 1:3.3.4
- 6921111The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →