Saudi Pro League, round 12 · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Al Shabab — Al Ahli
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Al Ahli are clear favourites: 59% against 17% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Ahli are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Shabab — Al Ahli What is xG? | 1.2–2.2 | |
| Al Shabab not to lose | 41% | |
| Al Ahli not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Al Shabab
- Al Shabab goals
- Al Ahli goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10Al-Taawoun3:0
- 12.09Al-Fayha0:0
- 09.09away · Al Kholood1:2
- 04.09Al Hilal0:2
- 30.08away · Al Hazem1:1
- 09.10away · Al Fateh FC4:0
- 11.09Al Hazem3:1
- 08.09away · Al Qadsiah2:3
- 04.09Al Riyadh5:0
- 01.09away · Al Hilal0:3
Head to head
- 13.02.2026Al Shabab — Al Ahli2:5
- 17.10.2025Al Ahli — Al Shabab1:1
- 11.05.2025Al Shabab — Al Ahli3:1
- 10.01.2025Al Ahli — Al Shabab3:2
- 11.05.2024Al Shabab — Al Ahli1:2
Table
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- AbhaAl Ittihadpreliminary1625592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- Al DiriyahNeom SCpreliminary363232XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →