Serie B, round 6 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Avellino — Sampdoria
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
4:1Missed
In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (32%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 32% fails in about 68 matches out of 100 on average.
Avellino are slightly stronger: 38% against 30%, draw 32%.
The model expects few goals: 2.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Avellino — Sampdoria What is xG? | 1.1–1.0 | |
| Avellino not to lose | 70% | |
| Sampdoria not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 34% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 66% |
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- Sampdoria goals
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Form
- 19.09Catanzaro2:1
- 13.09away · Mantova0:2
- 07.09away · Palermo1:3
- 29.08Juve Stabia1:2
- 23.08away · Cesena1:1
Head to head
- 22.03.2026Sampdoria — Avellino2:1
- 10.01.2026Avellino — Sampdoria2:1
Table
Next matches
- CesenaAvellino18 October · Serie B4828241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- SampdoriaArezzo18 October · Serie B4828241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →